← Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.5%
avg ELO +7.4 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1144
· median 1144
· range 1144–1144
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1169
Q3 1273
1420
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.6% | +19.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -3.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
